Nvidia Stock Drop Despite H200 Export Approval?

NEWS

12/12/2025

Why Did Nvidia Stock Drop Despite H200 Export Approval?

Just days after the US government approved Nvidia to export its customized H200 chips to China (with a 25% surcharge), shares slipped (~1% pre-market) on reports that Beijing may restrict domestic companies from buying them anyway, preferring local alternatives like Huawei.

Sentiment [🔴 Negative / Pessimistic]

Events

Potential Impact China aims to boost its domestic chipmakers and reduce reliance on US tech.

Seeking Moves: With China revenue already excluded from guidance and priced out of the stock, any market recovery there represents pure upside. Although China will likely pursue supply chain self-sufficiency in the long run, robust global demand for Nvidia chips effectively counterbalances this loss in the interim.

Considerations: Avoid catching a falling knife; wait for the stock to find a clear support floor on technical charts before considering a buy. For current holders, other than the geopolitical risk, be aware of fluctuations from upcoming Fed rate cut meeting, if you would like to play conservatively, you could consider add protective puts or covered call to limit downside (but the strategy also limits the potential upside if the market turns to the opposite direction).

Just days after the US government approved Nvidia to export its customized H200 chips to China (with a 25% surcharge), shares slipped (~1% pre-market) on reports that Beijing may restrict domestic companies from buying them anyway, preferring local alternatives like Huawei.

Sentiment [🔴 Negative / Pessimistic]

Events

Potential Impact China aims to boost its domestic chipmakers and reduce reliance on US tech.

Seeking Moves: With China revenue already excluded from guidance and priced out of the stock, any market recovery there represents pure upside. Although China will likely pursue supply chain self-sufficiency in the long run, robust global demand for Nvidia chips effectively counterbalances this loss in the interim.

Considerations: Avoid catching a falling knife; wait for the stock to find a clear support floor on technical charts before considering a buy. For current holders, other than the geopolitical risk, be aware of fluctuations from upcoming Fed rate cut meeting, if you would like to play conservatively, you could consider add protective puts or covered call to limit downside (but the strategy also limits the potential upside if the market turns to the opposite direction).